Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Stranraer

34
Lost

Celtic B

The model leans Stranraer at 40%. Expected goals: Stranraer 2.01, Celtic B 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 73%. Stranraer won 3 of their last 6; Celtic B won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Stranraer43%2.32
XDraw23%4.39
2Celtic B34%2.93

Pick: Stranraer. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.01 – 1.78
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.573%27%
3.553%47%
Both teams to scoreYes72%No28%

Most likely scores

  • 218.1%
  • 118.1%
  • 227.2%
  • 127.2%
  • 315.4%
  • 324.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Stranraer 0
Stranraer lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%19%56%
-0.544%56%
044%21%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%17%18%
+1.582%18%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.