Stranraer
Gala Fairydean Rovers
The model leans Stranraer at 53%. Expected goals: Stranraer 2.18, Gala Fairydean Rovers 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%. Stranraer won 3 of their last 6; Gala Fairydean Rovers won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stranraer | 60% | 1.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Gala Fairydean Rovers | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Stranraer. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.18 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–17.1%
- 3–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stranraer −1| Stranraer line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.