Hamilton Academical
Edinburgh City
The model leans Hamilton Academical at 68%. Expected goals: Hamilton Academical 2.86, Edinburgh City 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 54%. Hamilton Academical won 3 of their last 6; Edinburgh City won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hamilton Academical | 78% | 1.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Edinburgh City | 7% | 13.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hamilton Academical. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.86 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.3%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.2%
- 4–07.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hamilton Academical −2| Hamilton Academical line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.