Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Annan Athletic

22
Lost

Berwick Rangers

The model leans Berwick Rangers at 50%. Expected goals: Annan Athletic 1.51, Berwick Rangers 2.15. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. Annan Athletic won 2 of their last 6; Berwick Rangers won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Annan Athletic26%3.84
XDraw22%4.47
2Berwick Rangers52%1.94

Pick: Berwick Rangers. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.51 – 2.15
LineOverUnder
1.588%12%
2.571%29%
3.550%50%
Both teams to scoreYes69%No31%

Most likely scores

  • 129.0%
  • 118.4%
  • 226.8%
  • 136.4%
  • 216.3%
  • 026.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Berwick Rangers −0.5
Annan Athletic lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.512%88%
-112%15%73%
-0.527%73%
027%21%52%
+0.548%52%
+148%21%31%
+1.569%31%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.