Broxburn Athletic
Berwick Rangers
The model leans Berwick Rangers at 55%. Expected goals: Broxburn Athletic 1.38, Berwick Rangers 2.67. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 70%. Broxburn Athletic won 4 of their last 4; Berwick Rangers won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Broxburn Athletic | 17% | 5.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.41 | – | – | – |
| 2Berwick Rangers | 64% | 1.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Berwick Rangers. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 2.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–16.4%
- 0–26.2%
- 2–25.9%
- 0–35.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 64% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Berwick Rangers −1| Broxburn Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 11% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 17% | 65% |
| +0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| +1 | 35% | 20% | 44% |
| +1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.