Cowdenbeath
Broxburn Athletic
The model leans Cowdenbeath at 57%. Expected goals: Cowdenbeath 2.59, Broxburn Athletic 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 67%. Cowdenbeath won 1 of their last 6; Broxburn Athletic won 4 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cowdenbeath | 65% | 1.53 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Broxburn Athletic | 16% | 6.21 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cowdenbeath. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.59 – 1.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 3–06.1%
- 2–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cowdenbeath −1.5| Cowdenbeath line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| -1 | 45% | 21% | 34% |
| -0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| 0 | 66% | 17% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 10% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.