Predictions · Highland / Lowland · outside model coverage

Cowdenbeath

02
Lost

Broxburn Athletic

The model leans Cowdenbeath at 57%. Expected goals: Cowdenbeath 2.59, Broxburn Athletic 1.26. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 67%. Cowdenbeath won 1 of their last 6; Broxburn Athletic won 4 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Cowdenbeath65%1.53
XDraw19%5.35
2Broxburn Athletic16%6.21

Pick: Cowdenbeath. Calibrated probability 57% (raw model output 65%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.59 – 1.26
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.574%26%
3.554%46%
Both teams to scoreYes66%No34%

Most likely scores

  • 219.0%
  • 317.8%
  • 207.1%
  • 117.0%
  • 306.1%
  • 225.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Cowdenbeath −1.5
Cowdenbeath lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.545%55%
-145%21%34%
-0.566%34%
066%17%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%10%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.