Predictions · Highland / Lowland · outside model coverage

Cowdenbeath

42
Won

Stirling University FC

The model leans Cowdenbeath at 70%. Expected goals: Cowdenbeath 2.65, Stirling University FC 0.53. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%. Cowdenbeath won 1 of their last 6; Stirling University FC won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Cowdenbeath82%1.22
XDraw14%7.39
2Stirling University FC5%21.65

Pick: Cowdenbeath. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 82%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.65 – 0.53
LineOverUnder
1.583%17%
2.561%39%
3.539%61%
Both teams to scoreYes38%No62%

Most likely scores

  • 2014.7%
  • 3013.0%
  • 1011.1%
  • 408.6%
  • 217.7%
  • 316.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Cowdenbeath −2
Cowdenbeath lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.562%38%
-162%21%18%
-0.582%18%
082%12%5%
+0.595%5%
+195%4%1%
+1.599%1%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.