Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Kelty Hearts

24
Won

Clydebank

The model leans Clydebank at 59%. Expected goals: Kelty Hearts 1.00, Clydebank 2.32. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%. Kelty Hearts won 3 of their last 6; Clydebank won 3 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kelty Hearts14%7.15
XDraw20%4.99
2Clydebank66%1.52

Pick: Clydebank. Calibrated probability 59% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.00 – 2.32
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.564%36%
3.542%58%
Both teams to scoreYes57%No43%

Most likely scores

  • 029.7%
  • 129.7%
  • 018.4%
  • 118.4%
  • 037.5%
  • 137.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Clydebank −1
Kelty Hearts lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.55%95%
-15%10%85%
-0.515%85%
015%18%67%
+0.533%67%
+133%23%44%
+1.556%44%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.