Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Kelty Hearts
4–3
Won
Motherwell B
The model leans Kelty Hearts at 68%. Expected goals: Kelty Hearts 2.14, Motherwell B 0.41. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 70%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match77
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kelty Hearts | 77% | 1.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.65 | – | – | – |
| 2Motherwell B | 5% | 19.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kelty Hearts. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.14 – 0.41| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 2–018.0%
- 1–016.8%
- 3–012.8%
- 0–07.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 4–06.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kelty Hearts −1.5| Kelty Hearts line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| -1 | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.