Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Alloa Athletic
3–0
Won
Motherwell B
The model leans Alloa Athletic at 75%. Expected goals: Alloa Athletic 3.23, Motherwell B 0.36. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 71%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match91
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Alloa Athletic | 91% | 1.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 8% | 13.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Motherwell B | 2% | 60.98 | – | – | – |
Pick: Alloa Athletic. Calibrated probability 75% (raw model output 91%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.23 – 0.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 3–015.7%
- 2–014.6%
- 4–012.6%
- 1–09.0%
- 5–08.1%
- 3–15.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Alloa Athletic −2| Alloa Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| -1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| -0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| 0 | 91% | 7% | 2% |
| +0.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
| +1 | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.