Queen of the South
Alloa Athletic
The model leans Queen of the South at 43%. Expected goals: Queen of the South 1.80, Alloa Athletic 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. Queen of the South won 2 of their last 6; Alloa Athletic won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Queen of the South | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Alloa Athletic | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Queen of the South. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.80 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Queen of the South −0.5| Queen of the South line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 21% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 23% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.