Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Queen of the South
1–0
Won
Hibernian B
The model leans Queen of the South at 60%. Expected goals: Queen of the South 3.30, Hibernian B 1.79. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 81%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match67
16
18
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Queen of the South | 67% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Hibernian B | 18% | 5.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Queen of the South. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.30 – 1.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams to score | Yes80% | No20% |
Most likely scores
- 3–16.7%
- 2–16.0%
- 3–25.9%
- 4–15.5%
- 2–25.4%
- 4–24.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 71% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Queen of the South −1.5| Queen of the South line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| -1 | 49% | 18% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 15% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 10% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.