Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Queen of the South

40
Won

Cumbernauld Colts

The model leans Queen of the South at 50%. Expected goals: Queen of the South 2.51, Cumbernauld Colts 1.70. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 76%. Queen of the South won 2 of their last 6; Cumbernauld Colts won 0 of their last 4.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Queen of the South55%1.82
XDraw20%4.99
2Cumbernauld Colts25%3.99

Pick: Queen of the South. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.51 – 1.70
LineOverUnder
1.592%8%
2.579%21%
3.561%39%
Both teams to scoreYes75%No25%

Most likely scores

  • 217.9%
  • 226.8%
  • 316.7%
  • 116.3%
  • 325.7%
  • 125.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Queen of the South −1
Queen of the South lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.536%64%
-136%20%45%
-0.555%45%
055%19%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%13%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.