Gretna FC 2008
Cumbernauld Colts
The model leans Cumbernauld Colts at 63%. Expected goals: Gretna FC 2008 1.24, Cumbernauld Colts 3.01. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 68%. Gretna FC 2008 won 0 of their last 3; Cumbernauld Colts won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gretna FC 2008 | 12% | 8.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.48 | – | – | – |
| 2Cumbernauld Colts | 72% | 1.38 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cumbernauld Colts. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 88%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.24 – 3.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 61% | 39% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–38.1%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–36.5%
- 0–26.5%
- 1–46.1%
- 1–15.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cumbernauld Colts −1.5| Gretna FC 2008 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 8% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 14% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 19% | 54% |
| +1.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.