Gretna FC 2008
Caledonian Braves
The model leans Caledonian Braves at 60%. Expected goals: Gretna FC 2008 1.21, Caledonian Braves 2.69. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 66%. Gretna FC 2008 won 0 of their last 3; Caledonian Braves won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Gretna FC 2008 | 14% | 7.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Caledonian Braves | 68% | 1.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Caledonian Braves. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 2.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.9%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–27.3%
- 1–16.6%
- 0–36.6%
- 0–15.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Caledonian Braves −1.5| Gretna FC 2008 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 9% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| +0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| +1 | 31% | 21% | 48% |
| +1.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.