Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Cumbernauld Colts
1–1
Lost
Kilmarnock B
The model leans Cumbernauld Colts at 78%. Expected goals: Cumbernauld Colts 5.20, Kilmarnock B 0.56. Over 2.5 goals 92%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match97
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cumbernauld Colts | 97% | 1.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 2% | 42.19 | – | – | – |
| 2Kilmarnock B | 1% | 156.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cumbernauld Colts. Calibrated probability 78% (raw model output 97%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 99%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 5.20 – 0.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 98% | 2% |
| 2.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 81% | 19% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 5–010.9%
- 4–010.5%
- 6–09.5%
- 3–08.1%
- 7–07.0%
- 5–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cumbernauld Colts −2| Cumbernauld Colts line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| -1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| -0.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
| 0 | 97% | 2% | 1% |
| +0.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
| +1 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.