Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
East Kilbride
5–3
Won
Kilmarnock B
The model leans East Kilbride at 78%. Expected goals: East Kilbride 4.71, Kilmarnock B 0.53. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 59%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match96
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1East Kilbride | 96% | 1.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 3% | 30.77 | – | – | – |
| 2Kilmarnock B | 1% | 113.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: East Kilbride. Calibrated probability 78% (raw model output 96%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 99%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 4.71 – 0.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 2.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 4–011.5%
- 5–010.8%
- 3–09.7%
- 6–08.5%
- 2–06.2%
- 4–16.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 71% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: East Kilbride −2| East Kilbride line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| -1 | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| -0.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
| 0 | 96% | 3% | 1% |
| +0.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
| +1 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.