Brechin City
Musselburgh Athletic
The model leans Brechin City at 69%. Expected goals: Brechin City 2.88, Musselburgh Athletic 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 52%. Brechin City won 4 of their last 6; Musselburgh Athletic won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brechin City | 79% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.25 | – | – | – |
| 2Musselburgh Athletic | 7% | 14.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brechin City. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.88 – 0.80| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 2–010.5%
- 3–010.1%
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.3%
- 4–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brechin City −2| Brechin City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| -1 | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.