East Stirlingshire
Brechin City
The model leans Brechin City at 51%. Expected goals: East Stirlingshire 1.15, Brechin City 2.12. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. East Stirlingshire won 1 of their last 4; Brechin City won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1East Stirlingshire | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Brechin City | 59% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brechin City. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.15 – 2.12| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 0–28.5%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–36.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brechin City −1| East Stirlingshire line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 12% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 21% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 23% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.