East Stirlingshire
Tranent
The model leans Tranent at 62%. Expected goals: East Stirlingshire 0.78, Tranent 2.34. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 50%. East Stirlingshire won 1 of their last 4; Tranent won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1East Stirlingshire | 10% | 10.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Tranent | 71% | 1.40 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tranent. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 2.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.0%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–39.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–37.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tranent −1.5| East Stirlingshire line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 17% | 72% |
| +0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| +1 | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| +1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.