Tranent
Cowdenbeath
The model leans Tranent at 54%. Expected goals: Tranent 1.83, Cowdenbeath 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Tranent won 6 of their last 6; Cowdenbeath won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tranent | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Cowdenbeath | 13% | 7.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tranent. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.83 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.2%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–07.9%
- 0–07.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tranent −1| Tranent line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| -1 | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.