Bologna
Lazio
The model leans Bologna at 40%. Expected goals: Bologna 1.31, Lazio 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 54%. Bologna won 2 of their last 6; Lazio won 3 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bologna | 43% | 2.31 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| 2Lazio | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bologna. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–08.8%
- 2–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bologna −0.5| Bologna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.