Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage
Schwaz
0–15
Won
Augsburg
The model leans Augsburg at 78%. Expected goals: Schwaz 0.25, Augsburg 3.85. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 79%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match95
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Schwaz | 1% | 178.57 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 4% | 25.06 | – | – | – |
| 2Augsburg | 95% | 1.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Augsburg. Calibrated probability 78% (raw model output 95%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 99%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.25 – 3.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 58% | 42% |
| Both teams to score | Yes21% | No79% |
Most likely scores
- 0–316.1%
- 0–415.5%
- 0–212.6%
- 0–511.9%
- 0–67.6%
- 0–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS No 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Augsburg −2| Schwaz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0% | – | 100% |
| -1 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| -0.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| 0 | 1% | 4% | 96% |
| +0.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| +1 | 4% | 10% | 85% |
| +1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.