Schwaz
SV Wallern/St.Marienkirchen
The model leans SV Wallern/St.Marienkirchen at 61%. Expected goals: Schwaz 0.79, SV Wallern/St.Marienkirchen 2.26. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 50%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Schwaz | 11% | 9.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.13 | – | – | – |
| 2SV Wallern/St.Marienkirchen | 70% | 1.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: SV Wallern/St.Marienkirchen. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 2.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 0–212.1%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–39.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–37.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: SV Wallern/St.Marienkirchen −1.5| Schwaz line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 88% |
| -0.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| 0 | 12% | 18% | 71% |
| +0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| +1 | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| +1.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.