Ipswich Town
Leicester City
The model leans Ipswich Town at 55%. Expected goals: Ipswich Town 2.01, Leicester City 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%. Ipswich Town won 5 of their last 6; Leicester City won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ipswich Town | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Leicester City | 14% | 6.93 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ipswich Town. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.01 – 0.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–07.6%
- 3–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ipswich Town −1| Ipswich Town line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 24% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.