Leicester City
Northampton Town
The model leans Leicester City at 51%. Expected goals: Leicester City 1.76, Northampton Town 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%. Leicester City won 2 of their last 6; Northampton Town won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leicester City | 56% | 1.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.90 | – | – | – |
| 2Northampton Town | 18% | 5.45 | – | – | – |
Pick: Leicester City. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.76 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 28% | 72% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.1%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.9%
- 0–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 8% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leicester City −1| Leicester City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.