Crewe Alexandra
Northampton Town
The model leans Crewe Alexandra at 50%. Expected goals: Crewe Alexandra 1.60, Northampton Town 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Crewe Alexandra won 3 of their last 6; Northampton Town won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Crewe Alexandra | 52% | 1.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Northampton Town | 21% | 4.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Crewe Alexandra. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.60 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 25% | 75% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Crewe Alexandra −0.5| Crewe Alexandra line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.