Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt
The model leans Union Berlin at 37%. Expected goals: Union Berlin 1.66, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%. Union Berlin won 1 of their last 6; Eintracht Frankfurt won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union Berlin | 39% | 2.55 | 2.63 | 36% | +3 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | 3.70 | 26% | 0 |
| 2Eintracht Frankfurt | 35% | 2.82 | 2.50 | 38% | −3 |
Pick: Union Berlin. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.66 – 1.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
- 0–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Union Berlin 0| Union Berlin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| -0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| 0 | 40% | 23% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 19% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.