Predictions · 2. Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Karlsruher SC

25
Won

Wolfsburg

The model leans Wolfsburg at 43%. Expected goals: Karlsruher SC 1.68, Wolfsburg 2.09. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%. Karlsruher SC won 2 of their last 5; Wolfsburg won 2 of their last 3.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Karlsruher SC31%3.28
XDraw23%4.43
2Wolfsburg47%2.13

Pick: Wolfsburg. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.68 – 2.09
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.573%27%
3.552%48%
Both teams to scoreYes71%No29%

Most likely scores

  • 128.5%
  • 118.1%
  • 227.1%
  • 216.8%
  • 135.9%
  • 025.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Wolfsburg −0.5
Karlsruher SC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.515%85%
-115%16%69%
-0.531%69%
031%21%48%
+0.552%48%
+152%20%28%
+1.572%28%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.