Wehen Wiesbaden
Bayern München
The model leans Bayern München at 76%. Expected goals: Wehen Wiesbaden 0.78, Bayern München 4.55. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 54%. Wehen Wiesbaden won 1 of their last 4; Bayern München won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wehen Wiesbaden | 2% | 51.55 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 5% | 20.62 | – | – | – |
| 2Bayern München | 93% | 1.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayern München. Calibrated probability 76% (raw model output 93%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.78 – 4.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 2.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 77% | 23% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 0–49.1%
- 0–58.2%
- 0–38.0%
- 1–47.0%
- 1–56.4%
- 0–66.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayern München −2| Wehen Wiesbaden line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 2% | 98% |
| -0.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| 0 | 2% | 5% | 93% |
| +0.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| +1 | 7% | 10% | 83% |
| +1.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.