MSV Duisburg
Elversberg
The model leans Elversberg at 37%. Expected goals: MSV Duisburg 1.65, Elversberg 1.75. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 68%. MSV Duisburg won 1 of their last 3; Elversberg won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1MSV Duisburg | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Elversberg | 40% | 2.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Elversberg. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 1.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.8%
- 1–05.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: MSV Duisburg 0| MSV Duisburg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 18% | 63% |
| -0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| 0 | 37% | 23% | 41% |
| +0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| +1 | 59% | 19% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.