Chelsea
Brighton & Hove Albion
The model leans Chelsea at 41%. Expected goals: Chelsea 1.68, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.34. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Chelsea won 4 of their last 6; Brighton & Hove Albion won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Chelsea | 44% | 2.25 | 1.85 | 51% | −7 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.83 | 3.80 | 25% | +1 |
| 2Brighton & Hove Albion | 30% | 3.39 | 4.00 | 24% | +6 |
Pick: Chelsea. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 1.34| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.9%
- 0–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Chelsea −0.5| Chelsea line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 22% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 17% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.