Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage

Brighton & Hove Albion

40
Won

Tromsø

The model leans Brighton & Hove Albion at 51%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.65, Tromsø 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Brighton & Hove Albion won 4 of their last 6; Tromsø won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Brighton & Hove Albion55%1.81
XDraw27%3.74
2Tromsø18%5.56

Pick: Brighton & Hove Albion. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.85
LineOverUnder
1.571%29%
2.546%54%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.6%
  • 1111.5%
  • 2011.2%
  • 219.5%
  • 008.2%
  • 017.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Brighton & Hove Albion −1
Brighton & Hove Albion lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%26%44%
-0.556%44%
056%24%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%13%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.