Brighton & Hove Albion
Tromsø
The model leans Brighton & Hove Albion at 51%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.65, Tromsø 0.85. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. Brighton & Hove Albion won 4 of their last 6; Tromsø won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brighton & Hove Albion | 55% | 1.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.74 | – | – | – |
| 2Tromsø | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Brighton & Hove Albion. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.65 – 0.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.6%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
- 0–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brighton & Hove Albion −1| Brighton & Hove Albion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 26% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 24% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.