Hradec Kralove
Tromsø
The model leans Tromsø at 40%. Expected goals: Hradec Kralove 0.99, Tromsø 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%. Hradec Kralove won 1 of their last 6; Tromsø won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hradec Kralove | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.28 | – | – | – |
| 2Tromsø | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tromsø. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.99 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.1%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–28.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tromsø −0.5| Hradec Kralove line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 18% | 72% |
| -0.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| 0 | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| +0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| +1 | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.