Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage

Panathinaikos

22
Lost

Hradec Kralove

The model leans Panathinaikos at 44%. Expected goals: Panathinaikos 1.36, Hradec Kralove 0.87. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 56%. Panathinaikos won 5 of their last 6; Hradec Kralove won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Panathinaikos47%2.12
XDraw30%3.30
2Hradec Kralove23%4.42

Pick: Panathinaikos. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.36 – 0.87
LineOverUnder
1.565%35%
2.538%62%
3.519%81%
Both teams to scoreYes43%No57%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.7%
  • 1112.7%
  • 0010.8%
  • 2010.0%
  • 019.3%
  • 218.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Panathinaikos −0.5
Panathinaikos lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.523%77%
-123%25%52%
-0.548%52%
048%28%24%
+0.576%24%
+176%16%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.