Panathinaikos
Ajax
The model leans Panathinaikos at 40%. Expected goals: Panathinaikos 1.50, Ajax 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%. Panathinaikos won 5 of their last 6; Ajax won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Panathinaikos | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Ajax | 29% | 3.40 | – | – | – |
Pick: Panathinaikos. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Panathinaikos −0.5| Panathinaikos line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.