Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage

Hradec Králové

12
Won

Panathinaikos

The model leans Panathinaikos at 29%. Expected goals: Hradec Králové 1.06, Panathinaikos 1.12. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%. Hradec Králové won 1 of their last 6; Panathinaikos won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Hradec Králové33%3.08
XDraw32%3.12
2Panathinaikos35%2.82

Pick: Panathinaikos. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.06 – 1.12
LineOverUnder
1.564%36%
2.537%63%
3.517%83%
Both teams to scoreYes44%No56%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.4%
  • 0112.7%
  • 1012.0%
  • 0011.4%
  • 127.5%
  • 217.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Hradec Králové 0
Hradec Králové lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.513%87%
-113%21%66%
-0.534%66%
034%29%37%
+0.563%37%
+163%22%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.