Tromsø
Sarpsborg 08
The model leans Tromsø at 50%. Expected goals: Tromsø 1.83, Sarpsborg 08 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. Tromsø won 1 of their last 6; Sarpsborg 08 won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tromsø | 53% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Sarpsborg 08 | 22% | 4.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Tromsø. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.83 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–16.0%
- 0–15.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tromsø −0.5| Tromsø line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 23% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.