Kristiansund
Sarpsborg 08
The model leans Sarpsborg 08 at 41%. Expected goals: Kristiansund 1.26, Sarpsborg 08 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Kristiansund won 1 of their last 6; Sarpsborg 08 won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kristiansund | 29% | 3.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
| 2Sarpsborg 08 | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sarpsborg 08. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sarpsborg 08 −0.5| Kristiansund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 17% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.