Molde
Sarpsborg 08
The model leans Molde at 51%. Expected goals: Molde 2.05, Sarpsborg 08 1.18. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. Molde won 3 of their last 6; Sarpsborg 08 won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Molde | 56% | 1.78 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.33 | – | – | – |
| 2Sarpsborg 08 | 21% | 4.85 | – | – | – |
Pick: Molde. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.05 – 1.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–25.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Molde −1| Molde line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| -0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| 0 | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 13% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.