Viking
Sarpsborg 08
The model leans Viking at 68%. Expected goals: Viking 3.02, Sarpsborg 08 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 60%. Viking won 4 of their last 6; Sarpsborg 08 won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Viking | 78% | 1.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Sarpsborg 08 | 9% | 11.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Viking. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.02 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 3–08.4%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–18.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–06.3%
- 4–16.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 62% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Viking −2| Viking line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 19% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.