Predictions · Eliteserien · outside model coverage

Sarpsborg 08

10
Won

Hamarkameratene

The model leans Sarpsborg 08 at 39%. Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 1.76, Hamarkameratene 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Sarpsborg 08 won 1 of their last 6; Hamarkameratene won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Sarpsborg 0842%2.41
XDraw25%4.04
2Hamarkameratene34%2.96

Pick: Sarpsborg 08. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.76 – 1.58
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.565%35%
3.543%57%
Both teams to scoreYes66%No34%

Most likely scores

  • 119.9%
  • 218.7%
  • 127.8%
  • 226.8%
  • 106.3%
  • 015.6%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Sarpsborg 08 0
Sarpsborg 08 lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.522%78%
-122%20%57%
-0.543%57%
043%23%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%18%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.