Sarpsborg 08
Viking
The model leans Viking at 56%. Expected goals: Sarpsborg 08 1.21, Viking 2.48. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 65%. Sarpsborg 08 won 1 of their last 6; Viking won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sarpsborg 08 | 16% | 6.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Viking | 64% | 1.55 | – | – | – |
Pick: Viking. Calibrated probability 56% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 2.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.5%
- 0–36.4%
- 0–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Viking −1| Sarpsborg 08 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 10% | 83% |
| -0.5 | 17% | – | 83% |
| 0 | 17% | 18% | 65% |
| +0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| +1 | 35% | 22% | 44% |
| +1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.