Viking
Aalesund
The model leans Viking at 68%. Expected goals: Viking 3.14, Aalesund 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 61%. Viking won 4 of their last 6; Aalesund won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Viking | 79% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Aalesund | 8% | 12.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Viking. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.14 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 3–08.3%
- 3–18.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–06.5%
- 4–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Viking −2| Viking line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| -1 | 61% | 18% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.