Aalesund
Vålerenga
The model leans Aalesund at 40%. Expected goals: Aalesund 2.14, Vålerenga 1.88. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 76%. Aalesund won 0 of their last 6; Vålerenga won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aalesund | 44% | 2.28 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.56 | – | – | – |
| 2Vålerenga | 34% | 2.92 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aalesund. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.14 – 1.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 57% | 43% |
| Both teams to score | Yes75% | No25% |
Most likely scores
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.2%
- 1–26.8%
- 3–15.5%
- 3–25.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 63% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aalesund 0| Aalesund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 19% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 21% | 35% |
| +0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| +1 | 65% | 17% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.