Aalesund
Viking
The model leans Viking at 60%. Expected goals: Aalesund 1.21, Viking 2.57. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 66%. Aalesund won 0 of their last 6; Viking won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aalesund | 15% | 6.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Viking | 66% | 1.52 | – | – | – |
Pick: Viking. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.21 – 2.57| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 2.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.1%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–17.1%
- 0–36.4%
- 0–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Viking −1.5| Aalesund line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 10% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 17% | 67% |
| +0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| +1 | 33% | 21% | 46% |
| +1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.