Predictions · Eliteserien · outside model coverage

Start

03
Won

Viking

The model leans Viking at 68%. Expected goals: Start 1.03, Viking 3.02. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 62%. Start won 2 of their last 6; Viking won 4 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Start9%11.03
XDraw14%7.03
2Viking77%1.30

Pick: Viking. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 77%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 91%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.03 – 3.02
LineOverUnder
1.591%9%
2.577%23%
3.557%43%
Both teams to scoreYes61%No39%

Most likely scores

  • 138.3%
  • 128.2%
  • 038.1%
  • 028.0%
  • 146.2%
  • 046.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 64% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Viking −2
Start lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.53%97%
-13%6%90%
-0.510%90%
010%13%77%
+0.523%77%
+123%19%58%
+1.542%58%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.