Start
KFUM
The model leans KFUM at 39%. Expected goals: Start 1.51, KFUM 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. Start won 2 of their last 6; KFUM won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Start | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.96 | – | – | – |
| 2KFUM | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: KFUM. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Start 0| Start line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 18% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| +0.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| +1 | 57% | 20% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.