KFUM
Lillestrøm
The model leans Lillestrøm at 44%. Expected goals: KFUM 1.42, Lillestrøm 1.87. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. KFUM won 2 of their last 6; Lillestrøm won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1KFUM | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.09 | – | – | – |
| 2Lillestrøm | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lillestrøm. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.42 – 1.87| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lillestrøm −0.5| KFUM line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 16% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 22% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 21% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.