Lillestrøm
Rosenborg
The model leans Lillestrøm at 60%. Expected goals: Lillestrøm 2.32, Rosenborg 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%. Lillestrøm won 2 of their last 6; Rosenborg won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lillestrøm | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.01 | – | – | – |
| 2Rosenborg | 14% | 7.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lillestrøm. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.32 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–07.6%
- 3–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lillestrøm −1| Lillestrøm line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| -1 | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.